Evapotranspiration and water availability response to climate change in the Middle East and North Africa

Abstract Quantifying the impact of climate change on evapotranspiration is necessary for devising accurate water and energy budgets in light global warming. Nevertheless, Middle East North Africa (MENA), little has been done to bridge this gap. This study, then, implements Penman Budyko approaches climatic data retrieved from sixth phase Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) assess availability evolutions through twenty-first century. Outcomes reveal that MENA region indeed vulnerable a surge temperature, which can increase losses decrease availability. Under shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP2-4.5), potential (PET) projected throughout by up 0.37 mm per year during middle century (2021–2050) 0.51 end (2071–2100). Meanwhile, actual (AET) 0.3 (~0.2) before 2050 (2100). The trends both projections (PET AET) are exaggerated under SSP5-8.5. analysis predicted shortage (precipitation—AET), alarming most regions. Relative reference period (1981–2010), decline annual would reach 26 (62) 2100 SSP2-4.5 (SSP5-8.5). rise temperatures appears be principal reason responses. study’s outcomes facilitate realistic predictions related availability, key elements not only managing resources but also effective mitigation adaptation plans.